Long-term bets on events that will be decided in the future, like championship winners.
Futures bets are wagers on outcomes that will be determined at a later date, such as which team will win the Super Bowl, who will win MVP, or a team's win total for the season. They're placed well in advance and typically settled at the end of a season or tournament.
Futures can offer some of the best value in sports betting because the markets are less efficient than game-day odds. Early-season futures, before the market is fully formed, can present especially good opportunities.
The main downside of futures is that your money is tied up for a long time. A $100 Super Bowl futures bet in August won't be settled until February. This opportunity cost should factor into your betting decisions.
In August you spot the Lions at +1200 to win the NFC on BetMGM. A $100 ticket pays $1,200 profit if they lift the conference trophy in January. The implied probability is 7.7%, but your model gives them 11% — an edge of 3.3 percentage points worth roughly $43 in expected value.
Futures lock capital for months: that $100 cannot be redeployed until the market resolves, so position sizing matters. A bettor spreading $500 across five NFC contenders (Eagles +350, 49ers +450, Lions +1200, Cowboys +800, Packers +1400) builds a portfolio with multiple live tickets deep into December. Hedging a surviving +1200 Lions ticket against the Super Bowl opponent can lock in locked-in profit regardless of outcome.
<p>In August you spot the Lions at <strong>+1200</strong> to win the NFC on BetMGM. A $100 ticket pays <strong>$1,200 profit</strong> if they lift the conference trophy in January. The implied probability is 7.7%, but your model gives them 11% — an edge of 3.3 percentage points worth roughly $43 in expected value.</p><p>Futures lock capital for months: that $100 cannot be redeployed until the market resolves, so position sizing matters. A bettor spreading $500 across five NFC contenders (<strong>Eagles +350, 49ers +450, Lions +1200, Cowboys +800, Packers +1400</strong>) builds a portfolio with multiple live tickets deep into December. Hedging a surviving +1200 Lions ticket against the Super Bowl opponent can lock in locked-in profit regardless of outcome.</p>
Long-term bets on events that will be decided in the future, like championship winners.
<p>In August you spot the Lions at <strong>+1200</strong> to win the NFC on BetMGM. A $100 ticket pays <strong>$1,200 profit</strong> if they lift the conference trophy in January. The implied probability is 7.7%, but your model gives them 11% — an edge of 3.3 percentage points worth roughly $43 in expected value.</p><p>Futures lock capital for months: that $100 cannot be redeployed until the market resolves, so position sizing matters. A bettor spreading $500 across five NFC contenders (<strong>Eagles +350, 49ers +450, Lions +1200, Cowboys +800, Packers +1400</strong>) builds a portfolio with multiple live tickets deep into December. Hedging a surviving +1200 Lions ticket against the Super Bowl opponent can lock in locked-in profit regardless of outcome.</p>
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