PredictIt

PredictIt is the long-running political prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand under a CFTC no-action letter originally issued in October 2014. After nearly getting shut down in 2022 and spending three years in federal litigation, PredictIt is back in 2026 with refreshed CFTC no-action relief and higher position limits. It remains the single most important US-accessible venue for politics-specific event contracts with a continuous multi-year track record.

Overview

PredictIt lists binary contracts that pay $1 if a specified political outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, traded between users on a continuous orderbook. Victoria University operates the market for academic research purposes, with data made available to affiliated researchers. This academic framing is load-bearing: it is the legal basis for the no-action letter, and it is why the position caps exist.

Market Coverage

Almost exclusively US and international politics: presidential primaries and general elections, congressional control, cabinet and Supreme Court confirmations, state gubernatorial and Senate races, UK and European elections, and a handful of related questions (Fed chair, Speaker of the House). Sports, crypto, entertainment, and weather are not offered.

Pricing & Fees

PredictIt charges a 10% fee on net profits at market close and a 5% withdrawal fee on funds sent back to users. Those fees are materially higher than Kalshi, Polymarket, or IEM, and they meaningfully eat into returns on tight political markets. There are no explicit per-trade commissions.

Banking

Deposits via debit card and bank transfer. Withdrawals via bank transfer (subject to the 5% fee). Full identity verification is required. The minimum deposit is low. There is no crypto support.

Ongoing Promos / Liquidity Programs

None. PredictIt does not run promotional offers, referral bonuses, or liquidity incentives. This is consistent with its academic-research framing under the CFTC no-action letter, which prohibits general-public advertising.

Regulatory Reality

PredictIt's legal history is the most contested of any platform on this list, and the current status is: operating with CFTC no-action relief, as of December 2025. Timeline: The original 2014 CFTC no-action letter to Victoria University capped trader position size at $850 per contract and markets at 5,000 traders. In August 2022 the CFTC issued a withdrawal notice that would have shut PredictIt down. PredictIt and a group of traders sued in Clarke v. CFTC, and the Fifth Circuit issued an opinion (Case No. 22-51124) that sent the matter back to the CFTC. PredictIt continued operating through the litigation. In December 2025 the CFTC issued fresh no-action relief to PredictIt (alongside Polymarket, Gemini, and LedgerX/MIAX), with amended terms: per-contract position limits raised to $3,500 and the per-contract trader cap removed. PredictIt relaunched a redesigned interface reflecting the new limits. The underlying academic-purpose structure remains intact. US residents can use PredictIt legally in all 50 states.

User Experience

The redesigned 2025 interface is a significant upgrade from the long-running legacy UI — cleaner charts, better orderbook visibility, faster market pages. Mobile web works well. The community is small, politically literate, and heavily concentrated around the most active election markets, which means liquidity on headline questions is usually adequate even if thinner than it was pre-2022.

The Bottom Line

PredictIt is the only real-money political-only prediction market US residents have used continuously for over a decade, and the December 2025 CFTC no-action relief removes the shutdown cloud that had hung over the platform since 2022. Fees are higher than the commercial alternatives (10% on profits, 5% on withdrawals), but for serious political forecasters the depth on US election markets, the continuous multi-year historical data, and the unambiguous legal status still make it the clearest choice in its niche.

PredictIt is one of the player-facing brands BonusBell tracks across prediction.

Overview

It is an active product in the current BonusBell catalog and is tied to Victoria University of Wellington, with public-facing operations associated with Wellington, New Zealand (academic institution) / US: Washington, DC. PredictIt is currently categorized by BonusBell under prediction and mapped to 51 eligible US states in the live jurisdiction model. The current catalog says players can expect Political, Elections, Economic, News. Distinct hooks currently tracked by BonusBell include Academic origin; political markets specialty; $3500 cap per contract.

Bonuses and rewards

PredictIt currently advertises None. That line is useful as a quick hook, but users usually need more context around playthrough, expiry, qualifying wager size, and whether the offer is actually the best reason to sign up. No verified VIP ladder is attached to this platform record right now, so long-term loyalty value should be treated as unverified until stronger sourcing is attached.

Banking and claim flow

On the money-movement side, the catalog currently reflects a minimum deposit around $5. Even when the catalog does not expose every term, users still need this section because actual value depends on how easy it is to fund, verify, and cash out, not just on promotional copy.

Availability and regulatory reality

PredictIt operates as a regulated real-money product across 51 US states. When a platform is in this category, the practical questions are licensing footprint, banking reliability, and whether the offer terms still justify the account. The current license note in the catalog reads: {"regulator":"CFTC","type":"DCM/DCO","status":"Licensed","details":"CFTC Licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Designated Clearing Organization (DCO) since Sept 2025 after July 2025 lawsuit victory"}.

User experience

PredictIt presents a more complete operating profile than a thin affiliate stub because BonusBell can already identify deposit methods such as credit, bank, withdrawal options like bank, check. Current catalog signals put it at 4.5 rating with a 8.6/100 trust score. Those are only as strong as the source data behind them, so the rest of this page should be read as the evidence layer behind the headline number.

The bottom line

For most users, the real test is whether PredictIt offers enough product depth, regional access, and reliable banking to justify joining a wallet already crowded with major operators. PredictIt should be judged on the full operating picture: product quality, regional access, banking clarity, bonus terms, and whether the evidence on the page is strong enough to trust. Until every field is source-backed, this review should be treated as a structured starting point rather than a final verdict.